Canada's 2021 COVID-19 Special Edition Snap Election

It's the big day in Canada this September 20th, 2021, as voters decide who will govern the nation through whatever the next years have in store. Oh yeah, and there's a big pandemic. And literally everyone is going crazy. There's anger, bitterness, and increasingly unhinged people all over the streets, the internet comment sections, the sidewalks outside of hospitals and the sidewalks outside of restaurants. Trudeau got gravel thrown at him, and a lot of abuse, at several campaign stops. Libraries aren't even safe. People are getting run over on the side of the road, like animals. The stakes have never been higher, and yet nobody knows what the hell, and even the smart money's confused.

When Prime Minister Justin Trudeau called for an election mere weeks (was it weeks? really?) ago there was a collective late-summer sigh in the air, as Canadians of all political stripes wondered why the hell he couldn't wait until after the global pandemic had subsided a bit more. The last election was only two years ago, in October 2019, which feels like a million years ago, so there's strategies at play here that most won't be able to grasp until the dust settles. The reason Trudeau called the election? To cement a legacy that his backers hope will keep Canada on the path forward... to the future! For everyone! (We have our doubts, too.)

Trudeaumania: Part Deux?

It is approaching twenty minutes to midnight as I write this and if the news coverage and projections and preliminary mumbo jumbo is correct, Justin Trudeau is going to replace Steven Harper as Prime Minister of Canada. The craziest thing, thus far, is how it's a Liberal majority - in an election where fools like me were certain it would be a minority government outcome. In the best scenario I could envision: if there was no real change of government, at least the Conservatives would lose their majority, and all the parties would have to learn how to govern – not squabble and waste taxpayer monies – together.

The skeptical pessimist part of me just sees today's results as the pendulum of public favor swinging between two largely similar though ideologically distinct dominant political parties. And I am not convinced it isn't, but another part of me tempers my disbelief and wants to believe that Justin Trudeau will mark a new era in Canadian politics and therefore the country as a whole. Perhaps in ten years the country will be unrecognizable: the slowing economy revivified, the police state moderated or mutated into something more constructive, the puzzle of protecting one of the world's largest countries with what amounts to a tiny population solved, the political climate more respectful and positive, the tenuous possibility of Arctic sovereignty stabilized, the environment protected... and any other of dozens of serious issues put to rest or at least constructively engaged.

This is an election, mind, which has been strangely muted but rather intense, with very high stakes such that an American weekly news show covered it (though John Oliver is British and therefore would know at least two things about each commonwealth member, and perhaps even care about Canada on a personal level). It got heated in the final days, with perhaps one of the most boneheaded, bald attempts at recovery and public control yet to be seen in this election, a full page front cover advertisement... let me post a copy here below for you, in full color!

You know what they say about courting voters: aim for the wallet and the heart will follow... I don't actually know what they say about courting voters, but this to my eyes is an example of what they talk about. What I like is that apart from being kind of a tone-deaf and stupid and reactionary move, it's very shrewd to target the Liberals specifically, as if nobody in politics actually took the NDP seriously as a contender. I guess a real lesson is never to trust polls, I guess they just exist to measure the response of a sample size of the public so the data can be sold to political parties so they can invent good stories and manage their media appearance and tone instead of engaging a public by discussing governance concepts and ideas for bettering the country as opposed to making it a cheap place to live (if you want that, you go to America), and being honest about challenges instead of using them to spread fear and disgust.

Ah mais oui – the Sun line of newspapers. If you want to see what they're like, look them up online and see what they consider front page material. Celebrity gossip, fashion tips, crime stories, automotive news, hockey golf and football... all the stuff Gord MacRegular Canuck III would care about with a blend of partisan politically charged agenda-stories that are definitely surely not endorsing any specific party or being biased. But then, the ecosystem of the Canadian media is not the healthiest in the world and this isn't the time to discuss that.

There was a lot of strategic voting, I think, with motivated activist voting in order to not allow the Conservatives another majority or anything like it. Hence the NDP getting dumped... I feel for Mulcair, it must have been heartbreaking knowing the blow was coming and being completely unable to avert it. Not so Steve Harper (my sources tell me he is eyeing a job in hockey commentary or advising the CAPP), who is expected to step down as leader of the Conservatives, after being in power for a long time and being pretty successful in what he wanted to do, which any Canadian will tell you about if you ask them.

I'm sure Harper won't be heartbroken, but surely disappointed if not a bit sour about losing when none of his victories were particularly hard-fought (or, allegedly, fairly fought). Them's the breaks in Canada, though. You run a tight ship that goes where it wants, all the while rust grows, and one stormy day the thing implodes and sinks. But you get your insurance money and walk down the street feeling pure relief, once the sullenness has subsided, and thinking maybe to go into a different business after all...

One amusing anecdote is that on Twitter (a popular text-broadcasting social media app established in 2006 that is popular with media people and older millenials) the story seems to be STEPHEN HARPER with some mixed messages about who did what. But I guess 'Ridding Canada of Harper' for good or bad, became the theme of this election. That means no minorities and no coalitions, and the world will see what that means.

Isn't it crazy, though? I mean just look at that. Stephen Harper's shadow is so long, and mighty, that Justin Trudeau (soon to be sworn in as the Right Honourable Mr. Justin Trudeau, Prime Minister of Canada, etc) even in victory stands in it. As in: he's overshadowed by Harper as if he were a supernatural figure of some sort, a kind of human rights/environmental grim reaper.

Trudeau's victory speech was inspiring (it had Political Maverick Jack Layton overtones) and polite to other contenders, Mulcair's was resigned but determined, and Harper's omitted the fact that he was stepping down as leader, but NO REGRETS BITCHES. All the speeches have a fair bit of politicalese in both languages and if you want to hear what Duceppe or May said you'll have to look them up. In this writer's respectful opinion, they were never really in the race (except in their respective strongholds).

Let the whingeing commence! Let the qualified commentators do their thing. Let the vitriol spill over, as it will despite the calls for clemency and moderation by the leaders. I can't wait for the Trudeau Facts articles which will point out his deceased brother (killed by an avalanche) and all the Father/Son comparisons observers of Canadian politics will be forced to endure. How voter turnout numbers will look is going to most interesting for me, but I haven't seen figures at the time of this post and need to sleep. In conclusion:

The Great Canadian Election Season of 2015

The world itself shall feign ignorance but, secretly, all eyes are on Canada and all breath is bated until the outcome is reported. Anything could happen. Anyone could be at risk for a bungle, a gaffe, or even political exile in disgrace. Yes, dearest reader, Canada is preparing to elect (or reelect) a Prime Minister on the 19th of October of this year – and you're invited (even if just to watch powerlessly from the sidelines)! Without this well-timed post, you might have missed it, you might even have believed it to be an insignificant event in a marginally important country, but it's coming and could change everything.

Though there are more than three parties running in the election, only three matter. It's big blue versus adorable orange, with rascally red on the sidelines – or is it? Everyone knows the Conservatives due to their having been in power since 2006, with the inscrutable Stephen Harper leading them – and Canada – into some kind of wacky, police state, borderline xenophobic, oil-filled future. The Liberals are also well-known, as much due to history as to recent problems, and also because of the divisiveness of party leader Justin Trudeau. The NDP used to be the dark horse party but have consolidated major recent gains and seem to be potent contenders under the leadership of Thomas Mulcair, and might take a majority stake in post-Harper Canada.

Despite this exciting three-way race many people are either inordinately smug or completely pessimistic about what will resolve in October. The defeatist crowd, citing the past nine years, is ready to sigh and tell you that the Harper Conservatives are not done yet. Realists are predicting minority governments, with either the Liberals or NDP 'winning' (insofar as one can call a minority government a victory, since it will face outrageous struggles as zero-sum political antics stymie their attempts at reform and problem solving). The smart money, if you trust polls, is that the NDP will make history and get their first taste of federal power - their first taste of might, which may well destroy them.

There have been a number of fun scandals so far. I think each party has had at least one fledgling member's social media life end their candidacy - one insulted gay people, one insulted Muslims, a recent one is in trouble for posting about marijuana (the divisive, psychedelic crop for which Canada is, oddly, not renowned). None of it was out of place, and many of the scandalous events happened online and years ago and lots of new candidates are 'young adults' by world standards (22) and 'practically infants' in Canadian Age Reckoning. Such muckraking is to be expected in any election, really, and none of the scandals thus far are nearly as bad as the Rob Ford Saga or the more recent Senate problems or various wastes of taxpayer money.

Young? Canadian? Out of work? Work for free! No, not for me.

As if it isn't already easy enough to hire someone to work without paying them or even the intention of doing so, well fuck it... who gives a fuck what a rich privileged person has to say about it... basically you're fucked anyway. The job market in Canada for young people is hyper-competitive and relatively small, and most get to circle the drain of uselessness working shitty jobs and part-time just to get by, many others live 'in their parents' basements', and prospects are such shit that even the head of the national bank is telling kids to join the Peace Corps or whatever organization will take their unpaid work. Even stacking up degrees is less useful than it was. You'd pray for an unpaid overworked internship now, and if you don't know how to network: get ready to belong to the underclass.

Soon enough it won't be enough to be willing to help out a charity with anything but money, and they already generally like money better than people. You'll need 1-5 years' experience just to volunteer at a soup kitchen, and the police will be called on you just for walking down the street looking suspiciously unemployed, show your volunteer card please. Capitalism is hell, actually, and it keeps proving it more succinctly than any ignorant campus marxist ever could. Impure Capitalism like we have now is even worse, it's simply a bunch of cancerous money tumors that fuck everyone over while their collaborators twiddle their thumbs and tell a chronically underemployed generation to get over it and toughen up, then thumb their noses at them on their way out. The crab bucket is so full that nobody even knows if the ones getting out have qualifications or anything, the sheer volume of jobless fucks and underemployed losers is beginning to reach critical mass, and no amount of start-ups will solve what may well be a systemic problem.

Meanwhile the immensely profitable banking sector in Canada, the ones who used to be purely profitable banks but now also offer 'financial services' and sell boneheaded products to the gullible and afraid masses, is laying off every greasy wage-earner they can find so their profits don't get sullied by collusion with normal working people. I think the question on everybody's mind is "Where is this hellscape leading us? Will things improve?" The answer is maybe, but more importantly: why don't you just go volunteer somewhere for a whole year so you can demonstrate that you are using your post-secondary bachelor's degree properly and gaining experience? Learn to be a good worker before you become a paid worker. They're gonna have to cut the bottom out of the crab bucket, and all signs indicate they're sure as hell willing to.

The only upside is that maybe everyone who is young and unemployed or even underemployed will go volunteer and somehow that will result in... more jobs? More experienced jobseekers? The betterment of society seems more likely. Maybe it's time those sitting in big comfy corner offices start doling out some of that experience they've been hoarding in their corporations, and actually hire and train people, instead of pontificating from the position of material and professional comfort. Until then, they're a bunch of callous, insincere windbags making judgments on a situation they can only pretend to fully understand – one they likely never had to face when they were in your shoes.

This is all starting to seem so parodical.

10/22/2014: Shots Fired in Ottawa, Pt.1

Tragedy, death, chaos. Nobody could have seen it coming or imagined that a normal midweek day in Ottawa would come to this, with MPs scattering and running from something more real than bad press. However, the unthinkable has happened. Just before 10 A.M. on October 22, a soldier standing guard at the War Memorial in Ottawa was shot by a man with a long gun - reports indicate a shotgun, and also the soldier's later death in a hospital. After an unknown number of shots the man got into a car and traveled just up the street to Parliament Hill, where he gained entry to the centre block of Canadian Parliament where he was shot dead by the sergeant-at-arms, police and security forces in a pitched and very one-sided gunfight. There is video of the event that took place inside.

Meanwhile, the surrounding city is under lockdown as two other suspects are sought. Details are rather scarce and a few false alarms have already been defused, including one at the downtown Westin hotel. A large cordon around Parliament Hill has been set up and Canada's elite counter-terrorist division, JTF2, is on scene. Police are telling people to get away, get inside, and stay away from windows. Nobody is taking any chances, and civilians have been evacuated from nearby buildings as the search continues for two other suspects.

Usually when people get shot in Ottawa, there's a clear criminal motive - it's typically violence related to the drug trade. A major political figure, D'Arcy McGee, was shot to death by an assassin in 1868, on Sparks St. (near Parliament) so there is some precedent, but an assassination is much different than a shooting spree. Terrorism has been invoked as a cause for the shooting, mostly because nobody can think of a better reason for such a senseless act of violence.

The act is contrary to what Canada stands for - the inclusiveness and openness of Parliament Hill, a place thousands of people pass through each year, where hundreds of pot smokers gather each April, could only have aided the gunman. It is tempting to say that is an effect of naivete on the part of Canadians, but it is considered rather a sign of strength and surety, a calmly rational decision to not give into fear. All that might change in the coming weeks. The attack has already sidelined a meeting between Prime Minister Stephen Harper and recent Nobel Peace Prize winner Malala Yousafzai.

This is the second attack on a Canadian soldier in a week (two were struck by a car in Montreal - one died) and they've been warned by officials to stay out of uniform in public. The violence is alleged to be the highly trendy 'lone wolf' attacks, committed at the urging of ISIS leaders, in response to Western aggression. My question is how the usual RCMP teams on the Hill missed the attacker, there are usually a number of cars and officers around, plus cameras - fairly good security but the sleepiness of Ottawa can lull anyone into a sense of security. The twenty-four hour news cycle will on this for the next 12 hours at least. An intensification of the security state apparatus seems almost inevitable, even at this early point in time.

The fallout from this will be interesting, and many will be watching. However the story has entered a fallow mid-life lull of repetition and speculation - the facts as known are only that one soldier was shot and later died, that at least one gunman carried out the attack and was shot dead in Centre Block of Parliament, and that downtown Ottawa is locked, and everything around Parliament cordoned off while searches are made for further suspects. One thing is certain: the official response was not lackluster.

Canadian Politics Update: Justin Trudeau wants to Sell Marijuana to Your Children

If I were more of a bettor and actually had money to risk, the current political atmosphere of Canada would be the most entertaining and fruitful place for small bets on unexpected outcomes. For about a year now things have been less depressing than usual and... well that's not strictly true but there's an awful lot of shit going on. From the Rob Ford crack scandal and his chances of winning the mayoralty again, to the number of days until 'Justin Trudeau' robocalls go out to Canada's Children with probably the best deals on weed outside of B.C.

Then there's the odds of Canada getting politically motivated enough to do something more courageous and insightful than perpetuating a natural-resources based economy which has been the de-facto source of jobs and state monies since the fur trade, since even the fishing of cod by vikings in ~700 A.D. Of course, after more than a thousand years of viking-related overfishing, those cod stocks look worse than Thomas Mulcair's chances of becoming Prime Minister. In springtime, when winter psychosis has set in firmly with most of the population, Canada gets a bit squirrely and a bit speculative,  small parts of it go on to smash all comers at Olympic Hockey, and still more Canadians in the Winter Olympics put on great, and often heartwarming, showings.

Economically, the Branch Plant Bet (also referred to in some circles as NAFTA) has managed to keep Canada in the black without solving the problem of the Rust Belt, or the overreliance on natural resources, or the productivity and skills gap. Unemployment is such a problem that many larger corporations have had to bring in foreign workers in order to have anyone to heartlessly terminate. The Canadian banking sector is 'the envy of the world' (their words – not mine), and experts estimate a Citigroup-level superbank to form in Canada in the next twenty years, which ought to make quite the splash in international banking. Why are Canadian banks international superstars? Easily, by being diligent businesses and selling only the finest and least dangerous financial services to their customers. That and sitting on large piles of money... I mean seriously, how was anyone surprised that Canadian banks did OK in the recession? They get money from the public for free, with less grumbling than the tax man faces, and they charge service fees sometimes. It's basically a foolproof industry anywhere it's not run by pure-strain greed (and even then the profits flow, as they must).

Rob Ford is Not a Damn Thing Like Chris Farley

Yes it's pretty tempting if you're trying to hack out a monologue or are a pretty half-assed funny-person, but Chris Farley wasn't a Canadian and also was much cooler than Rob Ford. Moreover it is suggested by his death that Farley partied a damn sight harder than Rob Ford. People who remember their history or know something about drug abuse will agree. Crack use seems pretty bad but it's more or less just a variety of cocaine use, mixing cocaine and heroin (the notorious speedball) is next-level shit by comparison, a gift from twisted space angels that wish nothing but death on celebrities (and probably thousands of 'normal people' that you never heard of). I heard a few of these supposedly humorous comparisons and I have to say, I'm about as unimpressed as a Toronto homeowner or businessman.

Rob Ford obviously parties harder than the majority of people ever do, but it is... come on... it's a bit of a smaller league than Chris Farley. Crack cocaine has a certain wow factor that just makes the entire story that much more crazy and appealing to most people.

Anecdotally, in 2009 a Canadian conservative MP, Rahim Jaffer, was caught with powder cocaine and I swear to you now that it was not mentioned on probably all international media. [Is there an international CPAC that isn't also moonlighting as a propaganda front for the U.N.? Maybe they would carry it.] Even in Canada it was a small potatoes story that was quickly hushed away and forgotten. Most Canadians, if you asked them about Rahim Jaffer, would give you a blank stare. Meanwhile, around the world you can bring up Rob Ford for a quick talking point or laugh. The point is that crack is just a much bigger story than cocaine, despite being the same drug. Yeah, there's other factors which influence the size and longevity of this story, but...

There are better stories at this point, and the usual suspects are having a field day with Rob Ford when they could be doing more original or funnier jokes. Back in May it was a hoot, and we can't forget the absolute hilarity of everything since the crack use was proven, but the joke's probably run its course. It will fade from late night TV and remain as a sordid specter in Toronto, maybe drunk, maybe not, but still haunting the city.

I know lots of people who are tired about this. It's the sorry state of Canadian politics: the only mentions they seem to get are when wacky mayors get called out by Gawker for doing drugs, prompting a police investigation and media firestorm. It is a well known fact that Rob Ford was not well liked prior to the conviction, which makes the whole thing very satisfying for a lot of people, and now the damn thing should play quietly with less free press for Ford. It should be resolved by the city council...

Of course, now that the story is getting interesting (Rob Ford is attempting to clean up his image, and will continue to battle with opponents) the outside interest will dissipate like the smell of a fart, or the type of low-yield scandal that somehow seems to be dealt with very lightly. Then again, maybe the people who wrote the charter for Toronto mayoralty weren't expecting a seasoned crack smoker and drunkard. Very funny, because the public official in the story is a rather prominent man who uses drugs liberally, despises the downtown types, and sweats a bunch.

Meanwhile in Canada there are corruption problems, the question of who will lead the country out of an era of pseudo-stupor (currently it looks like a job nobody can accomplish, and I personally doubt Stephen Harper ever bothered himself for a minute about it), the oft-ignored First Nations issues, and best of all a highly resource-and-construction-based economy that could shatter at the whim of the markets, and which in any case is a carefully controlled game of gouging and despoiling Canada to try and fit in with the world economy clique.

User Comment Rodeo: Pot Still a Huge Deal

It's downright unhealthy. It'll drive you crazy and ruin your life. It's a gateway to worse things. The User Comment Rodeo is, in fact, all of the above – and more!

Marijuana, for God knows what reason, is still something people get riled up about. Despite being illegal, it is found everywhere, in most countries. In certain places it is policy to execute or imprison people for marijuana crime: the stakes get higher than the high. Its legal status in free countries, and surrounding discussion, is one of the most indicative dramas of our epoch. 

Every time legalization fumbles, the same crowd comes out to jeer. Many consider it the finest part – the choicest cut of commentary – but in many ways it is a joyless spectacle.

Sensationalism is never where the show's at. There are finer tastes (even though it is understandable to ignore them). Consider the above: a beautiful and puzzling moment in the blizzard of opinion – another beautiful snowflake. A natural, logically formed moment in time, among all the rest. Arguments are always made noticeably better by:
1. Organization
2. Rhythm and Repetition
3. Dope

You can't be afraid of the deep end in this business. The shallow end is easier to understand, but what you miss out on is nuance. Don't fear the deep end:
1. It's Deeper
2. Paying Attention
3. Digression: Creates Perspective

Morality is key, because let's face it: user comment boards are highly influential and very important for public discourse. The picture they paint will always be a masterpiece. But to paint a masterful picture, the artist must reach into the soul of the audience – pulling on the heaviest of heartstrings and reading unthinkable terrors

North American Politics Redux

That the governments of North America function as ears into which special interest groups pour their bile shouldn't surprise a single thinking person. The best part is the most worrying: there is no more point in even pretending to aim for a government which serves the people. The best one can hope for is a government that serves corporate interest, foreign investment, itself, and its elites and prays earnestly for that service to trickle down into the cracks where dwell the invisible, rotten peons which they have struggled to get away from.

In this era, where the American dream could be dismantled for the pernicious, self-destructive, blind and ignorant mess that it is, there are entire groups of people with frothing mouths trying to blame anyone for the demise of their beloved ideal. Instead of doing the American thing and hardening up and finding something better and smarter, they still worship the car cult, the sprawl cult, and the consumption cult. Bridges are fabricated in China and assembled by foreign labor in America. Nobody can do a goddamned thing about it, no matter how shameful it is, because American manufacturing and labor have been gutted in the interests of iPhones, service-industry, and the downright vampiric finance industry (which, rightfully, is more of a quack cottage industry, as its very nature is antithetical to true industry, which creates products of value).

A populace distrustful of its government moves apathetically to cast its meaningless votes into the mire of corruption and ineptitude that will bring them an even more degraded government. Someone says he doesn't  care about roughly half of a country – well of course, nobody ever has, or will, and if this percentage would only dream the right dream of wastefulness and satiety then they could pull themselves out of poverty and darkness.

Meanwhile democracy is a dead byword, remembered by some, but truly forgotten by all. We have several hundred statist, nationalist, authoritarian and totalitarian pieces of shit running the world. All of them are lackeys to the 'real players' who wish, respectfully, not to be named or pointed at. Yet we consume their products each day. It's harder to farm food than it is to process it into unhealthy products to sell to masses, which it poisons into leprous lumps which look forward only to the faded idiotic 'leisure time' involving yet more consumption and little else.

Big bad governments pass hundreds of laws and amendments in so-called 'omnibus bills' which politicians are too lazy and inept to read and understand. All sorts of toxic policy are passed into law without so much as a cursory glance, and the culprits are paid and pampered, travel around the world, and don't even bother to defend their use of public money or trust in such a despicable way. The instigator even allows that it is undemocratic and scary, but continues doing it anyway, because god damn doing work you are paid and trusted to do. Revolutionaries, under these pressures and more, are still branded as idealists, idiots, and heretics. The placid horde feeds on scraps from the table and licks its chops contentedly, smiling at the less fortunate.

In some considerable and old parts of the world, a potentially faked video has caused a number of deaths because it portrays a prophet in an unfair and unkindly light. Free speech is cited and forgotten, and outrage is the rule of the day. If only outrage was the rule of the day, and apathy didn't rule, where truly important and existential affairs are concerned. As we pass into the twilight of this era, hoping for a better tomorrow, we would do well to remember the words of one J.J. Rousseau. That is, if any among us can remember them.

Rest in Peace, Political Maverick Jack Layton

I'll be honest, during the election season in April and May I was actually excited. It seemed like the NDP would win, a variable ~10 reader group was reading the posts, some of whom were even Canadian, and I got to write about politics that I was familiar with. Canadian politics, milquetoast in comparison with other countries where opposition parties are harassed or exploded, are still an important thing to follow and the election was most important.

But what really came out of that election was the feeling that Jack Layton had become a justified Political Maverick. And I didn't use that term lightly, fallaciously, or jokingly. I was really convinced that Canada's only decent candidate was about to win. Of course, that didn't happen, but I was hopeful that when the political season opened up and those loafers went back to Parliament to shout at each other, Jack Layton was going to tell the Conservatives what the fuck up. I was thinking that some great sound bytes would come out of that and reveal the Harper majority for the regressive, wasteful, ignorant political behemoth it was. (And it wasn't at all a majority, unless the apathy non-vote were Conservatives).

 The election was clearly demarcated from the start: Harper was going to be fiscally conservative on the surface and ideologically centrist, Ignatieff was going to be fiscally liberal on the surface and ideologically centrist or inconsistent. Jack Layton was going to deal with social problems and was ideologically right, because Canada does not look after her social problems very well. He had a history of giving a shit about people, which Harper (who shakes his own son's hand instead of embracing him) is possibly incapable of doing. Layton was the Maverick, and had proved it repeatedly...

Layton probably knew what was coming, and made a point of leaving final words. And really, on this day, as during the election, my regret is that I never met him. I would've had a few soft-boiled questions and mostly I would've just wanted to know if he was as nice as people said. He was demonized by the scared dummies of this country as a communist, and the politically ignorant crippled him in the last election, but he was nothing if not an aware and principled politician, whatever his faults.

Political Maverick Jack Layton in the early days.

Final Stretch Blues

Political bookies have not budged from their original odds. Despite various news articles and voter polling and other dirty chicanery, the conclusion of the great national game of elect-the-PM is not in doubt. The Opposition shift was the wild card, nobody had pools on that. My smug bets on Political Maverick Jack Layton and the NDP are withering before my eyes. I don't answer the phone anymore, and there doesn't seem to be anything to believe.

The final stretch of the federal election has seen various desperate acts. Liberals, formerly quite comfortable about being the Opposition's prime spokespeople, have made certain panicked attempts at stemming the NDP flood. That flood, incidentally, might still just have been a PR break backed by ineffable poll numbers and a questionably realistic spirit of change. Similarly, the Conservatives have gunned for the NDP and have recently pulled a final smear tactic that may sway voters who are willing to believe allegations AKA everybody who was going to vote Conservative or Liberal anyway.

But the thing about politics is that even when other parties begin to panic, and the slander is thrown around, there's still no clear picture about anything. It's nice that Harper and Ignatieff are sweating, but where will the new competitive spirit lead? More sameness? Independent actors can 'reveal events' that bring campaigns, burning, to the ground. My expectation? Harper is the obvious forerunner, but Layton has had the optics from day one – still there was an insistence on Liberal/NDP backbiting. Ignatieff seems to have held on to everyone who was a Liberal before the election. In a sense it doesn't seem like anything will change, which makes all the hullabaloo rather ironic.

There is the HST question, the deficit, Family Subsidies, and the global image of Canada to worry about – among other things that are downplayed in favor of 'optics'. Well we can't just forget the G20, which managed to alarm only Canadians while the rest of the world snickered, and in view of what happened in 2011 so far, was mostly a costly and pathetic spectacle. Who can we blame for that? Is it even important to ask that question?

Mostly I'm surprised that, all things considered, the only thing that has really changed since March is the weather. If anybody was crazy enough to attempt to transcribe the whole 2011 Federal Election into music, it would be a set of absurd repetitious notes – a monotonous cacophony. Morse code. SOS. Things destabilize. When the static finally clears, the television screen blazes proudly with blue light and a reassuring message, "Canada, we are here for you."

Yeah Yeah...

For a minute or two yesterday it was almost possible to believe that Political Maverick Jack Layton was going to become a prime minister. There was this sense of optimism and energy, almost limitless, that something dynamic was finally going to happen in Canadian politics. Certain senior mandarins in parliament were already crying and cracking open priceless bottles of brandy.

Desperate operators roamed the streets of Canada in a last-ditch attempt to rustle up support for Harper and Ignatieff, each of whom were in their 'situation rooms' taking shots of maple syrup and shouting into microphones phrases such as (but not limited to): "Show me the votes!", "This isn't politics; it's a slaughter!", and my favorite of all time: "There's no time for the harmonium, just get the fuck out of Bridle Path!" Who even knows who they were talking to, but my guess is Prince.

Yes it sounded like the Liberals and Conservatives, after decades of dual-monopoly stranglehold over the Canadian Voter, were finally about to get a solid drumming for their misbehavior. Jack Layton had the image, had the poll numbers, had even half an ear among Quebeckers under the age of 35, had young voters countrywide, and just one final precipice to climb: the hearts and minds of Canada's most stubborn voters: knee-jerk Conservatives and habitual Liberals.

Continuing Canadian Context

Go ahead and ask them now, some weeks later, what the political landscape of Canada is. It features nothing the Group of Seven might have done except for the map with its abstract political colours. Harper is blue, Ignatieff is red, Layton is orange and May is green. Let's ponder these colours. Green is the colour of life, Orange is the colour of Hollander royalty, red is the colour of life (but also Soviets and the dying Maple Leaf). Blue is the colour of disenchantment, also of life, and thirdly of lack of options.

Since the election has been announced there has been a deafening silence about the government deficit and the global depression (or recession if you're an optimist, or end of capitalism if you're an alarmist) and everyone opened volleys of 'family politics' and other types of sensationalism. In this country you do not play politics on weighty issues. Let me explain: families, in Canada, are doing well. Most families are in the easy-to-control low-to-mid middle class, relatively wealthy, perhaps overspending on credit, but doing well and employed, with an exception rate of less than 10%. This comes out to maybe 15,000 out-of-work families facing destitution or hard times, probably half that and maybe even less than that.  There is no particular zone of concentration as in the '90s. The east coast probably can be weighted a little.

What makes this weak politics is that this group of people is easy to hoodwink. They think their fair taxes are monolithic tithes to the state. All an aspiring prime minister has to do is promise that these taxes will be reinvested into the middle class family background that pays the majority of them. It goes without saying that the poverty line does not discriminate between families and individuals, but families are more important. Help them, and help yourself to a political majority. This is all theory, but the parties have acted on it as if it were a rule.

So each of the big three politicians started election season by flogging family politics. Some friends of mine distilled it thusly: Conservatives meant a straight family with not even a gay child, while the Liberals and NDP would help any family.  Never mind the family unit is the sort of ancient structure that is known to be able to survive all kinds of nonsense. Maybe in the 'post-industrial' era families are endangered or suddenly overwhelmed by the corporate world structure. Anyways, because in most countries all people come from families, they are the safest bet for politics, and that is why for weeks there were shameless attempts by each party to win this faction over.

This is how majority politics works. I have no idea how these aspiring governments are planning to fund their extravagant family subsidies, but it will probably include wasteful consulting, forms in triplicate, and a communications blackout. Nearsightedness is a curse on the populace, but a blessing to the politicians.

The Canadian Political Situation as of March 27, 2011

There are a shit ton of things I could blog about in this apocalyptic month. Shit I could even go the frivolous route and write about something that happened to me, or what I think of a recent movie, or Charlie Sheen. I got a good Charlie Sheen joke I'm holding onto for the first anniversary of the BP Oil Spill of 2010. I think I could write three parts about snow melting. I could even do another off-colour joke about school shootings.

But I'm going to dial it back a little and give everyone some breathing space whilst I write speciously about the political situation in Ottawa, Canada. With so much trouble in the world, it's only right that I do what the US MEDIA does relentlessly and contextualize it in the candy-coloured terms of geopolitics.

The effortless government of Stephen Harper finally rolled into the rough last week; parliament was dissolved, and the thing Canadians feared most (an election) finally rose out of the slightly toxic, slightly oily, slightly radioactive water of Canadian politics. What kicked it all off was a budget bill nobody agreed with, which led to slightly bemused finance minister who took it not at all personally saying that only time would tell.

If you ask any Canadian on the street, especially if they're unmarried and under the age of 30, they'll tell you they know nothing about the situation at all. Who could blame those fools for not caring about how their country is managed? Sorry, anybody who's lived under a repressive regime: things are so good in Canada that we can afford the fatal luxury of political apathy. Under these conditions it's pretty easy to see how professional politicians could shake up an election season out of nowhere: with strife and struggle raging all over the world, they just wanted a piece of the action.

I've seen ministers out on the streets begging for lights and spare cigarettes. Tim Hortons franchises are packed with political bookies offering huge odds on Jack Layton. Oil-hungry representatives and death-lobbyists from other parts of the world are getting away with murder in the capitol while obscure backbenchers search for their parking passes. The RCMP is letting anybody into parliament who agrees to adjust their pay to 2011 levels. Michael Ignatieff looked considerably smug earlier this week, but I saw him a few minutes ago with a pained expression on his face, as if his earlier enthusiasm was but an act.

Meanwhile, Harper made the most intelligent comment of the month when he alluded to the fact that 'most Canadians do not want an election'. Sure, a small portion of politically literate Canadians balked at the idea that he had the gall to speak for them, but the rest of us are not very impressed by this year's lineup. Also he was right. We preferred complaining about the Conservatives and the fact that we were the first country on earth to have a robot as our leader.

In terms of betting it is far too early to make an half-decent wager. The smart money has not been placed yet, but by mid-April we will wish we had done this last year, and sullenly bet on Blue, again, out of sheer spite.