The world itself shall feign ignorance but, secretly, all eyes are on Canada and all breath is bated until the outcome is reported. Anything could happen. Anyone could be at risk for a bungle, a gaffe, or even political exile in disgrace. Yes, dearest reader, Canada is preparing to elect (or reelect) a Prime Minister on the 19th of October of this year – and you're invited (even if just to watch powerlessly from the sidelines)! Without this well-timed post, you might have missed it, you might even have believed it to be an insignificant event in a marginally important country, but it's coming and could change everything.
Though there are more than three parties running in the election, only three matter. It's big blue versus adorable orange, with rascally red on the sidelines – or is it? Everyone knows the Conservatives due to their having been in power since 2006, with the inscrutable Stephen Harper leading them – and Canada – into some kind of wacky, police state, borderline xenophobic, oil-filled future. The Liberals are also well-known, as much due to history as to recent problems, and also because of the divisiveness of party leader Justin Trudeau. The NDP used to be the dark horse party but have consolidated major recent gains and seem to be potent contenders under the leadership of Thomas Mulcair, and might take a majority stake in post-Harper Canada.
Despite this exciting three-way race many people are either inordinately smug or completely pessimistic about what will resolve in October. The defeatist crowd, citing the past nine years, is ready to sigh and tell you that the Harper Conservatives are not done yet. Realists are predicting minority governments, with either the Liberals or NDP 'winning' (insofar as one can call a minority government a victory, since it will face outrageous struggles as zero-sum political antics stymie their attempts at reform and problem solving). The smart money, if you trust polls, is that the NDP will make history and get their first taste of federal power - their first taste of might, which may well destroy them.
There have been a number of fun scandals so far. I think each party has had at least one fledgling member's social media life end their candidacy - one insulted gay people, one insulted Muslims, a recent one is in trouble for posting about marijuana (the divisive, psychedelic crop for which Canada is, oddly, not renowned). None of it was out of place, and many of the scandalous events happened online and years ago and lots of new candidates are 'young adults' by world standards (22) and 'practically infants' in Canadian Age Reckoning. Such muckraking is to be expected in any election, really, and none of the scandals thus far are nearly as bad as the Rob Ford Saga or the more recent Senate problems or various wastes of taxpayer money.
So what really is the deal this election? Ah, a three-way race for maybe the first time in history. Well, also there's a large anti-Harper movement by people who feel the Conservatives have failed Canada, and there are large anti-NDP movements by Conservatives and Liberals, and there are anti-Liberal movements largely composed of Conservatives – in a sense nothing's changed except the NDP have a real stake, and that has led to some funny ideas being passed around as truths.
For instance, despite a shift in national politics towards the 'right' of that heinous and stupid political spectrum, people are saying that the NDP is too 'leftist' when the party has abandoned its older hard-left policy and thought in such a way as to basically become center-left. These kind of no-fact arguments used to be unpopular in Canadian politics, but the lessons learned by the United States have had a real impact in the use of smear advertising.
One of the best examples was a spurious Conservative ad that essentially claimed in every way but direct statement that the Liberal Party's wild idea to legalize marijuana would lead to grade-school children smoking fat doobies (and thinking dangerous leftist thoughts). One would almost expect, from such alarmism, that Trudeau Jr. would be at various gradeschools forcing children to inhale. Well, make your own conclusions. The CPC pulled the ad off the radio long before its 8 month lifespan, and all of this happened more than a year before any election was called. It reeked of panic, of a suspicious eagerness to besmirch the moderate and reasonable ideas of a political opponent that party operators quickly wanted to turn into a villain.
Personally I see the demonization of Prime Minister Harper as the most interesting thing of all. His conservative party has been responsible for many egregious actions (the police state preview and unashamed exercise of power and abolition of civil rights at the 2010 G20 is a microcosm of many things wrong with the world, and also cost 1 billion dollars, but mostly you know who was issuing the general plans), the collapse of environmental protection (this goes well and beyond the oilsands, if you bother to give a shit, which most of Canada doesn't), the lopsided wreck of an economy (due to reliance and expansion of oil and other extraction-based economies - but the CAPP will probably buy out any future government of Canada as well, so don't expect this to change or blame it solely on the Conservative Party of Canada), foreign policy woes (fear and hatred of refugees, an incredibly overwrought and very quick response to two domestic 'terrorist attacks' [moose, alcohol, and snowmobiles killed more people]; bills C-24 and 51), failures to correct and respond to crimes of the past (not specifically any party's fault but the murders of over 200 native women, and the destruction of the native way of life are shamefully ignored by a government that built a human rights museum and wants to build an ugly stupid monument to the victims of that bogeyman, Communism, as a way to look good without having a soul or a clear conscience) and finally a public safety dogma that boggles the mind in an era of declining violent crime rates (harsher convictions, mandatory minimums for nonviolent offenses, and more jails), and general tomfoolery (shitty F-35s for fifty billion dollars, shutting up scientists, random defunding, the shameless use of veterans as political props, unnecessary partisanship, "Morality", unconstitutional acts, premature smear campaigns, and more!).
Now, as I catch my breath, I realize I cannot in good faith attribute all of that solely to PM Stephen Harper. However, he had the power to at least ameliorate some of these issues instead of playing politics and ruling the message with an iron hand. But, on the other hand, that famous picture of him shaking his son's hand was largely created due to media pressure... I've heard the story that it made him so furious that he never wanted to play fair with the media again (which made rather the fool of him as a result, and the acrimony is healthy in either direction to this day). Some may see that kind of wounded response as the sensible move of a man with no alternatives, but it doesn't excuse the control of message and lack of transparency with which the Harper Administration has been associated.
Still and all, those issues bother a lot of people, and when you think about them, and the intelligence of Stephen Harper (whose willingness to speak for 'all Canadians' is as tyrannical as it is tone deaf and ignorant) something doesn't add up. He's been villainized, but then, he's done a fair amount of villainizing, himself. To me, it has always come down to an idea of Harper as a man with a contempt for the average Canadian. I think he perhaps wishes that the older, fearful, safe-and-mildly xenophobic, 'Indian'-hating demographic was the only 'true' demographic of Canadians (oh and a lot of immigrants that don't rock the boat and play fair) in existence. Perhaps. I have no idea. Lots of new immigrants love social and fiscal conservatism. Except the modern conservative as a political animal is conservative only when it is expedient, and what it fails to afford 'welfare freeloaders' it gladly gives to corporations, all the while citing 'economy' as it creates a welfare economy... I could go on but I won't... my thoughts are all running together in a blur and I fear I've stopped making sense.
We'll see how the truth plays out, or (more likely) how its distortion influences people who don't care to think about, question, or perceive reality. I myself find it highly unlikely that the Conservative Party will ride again in a majority situation, but a minority is not unthinkable as long as they play their cards right. They have a lot of supporters, while the Liberals and NDP typically snipe each other's supporters. What I can be supremely confident about is that 'real change' is unlikely to occur. We're talking about a country that was on the verge of legalizing marijuana 11 years ago, and now seems further from doing so than ever, while its 'uber-right' southern neighbor has multiple states where the demon herb is legal. It's a small thing, sure, and not as important as foreign policy or the economy, but if it was solved everyone would shut up about it and more important things could be discussed without such an obvious, highly-partisan issue fogging the glass.
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