It's the big day in Canada this September 20th, 2021, as voters decide who will govern the nation through whatever the next years have in store. Oh yeah, and there's a big pandemic. And literally everyone is going crazy. There's anger, bitterness, and increasingly unhinged people all over the streets, the internet comment sections, the sidewalks outside of hospitals and the sidewalks outside of restaurants. Trudeau got gravel thrown at him, and a lot of abuse, at several campaign stops. Libraries aren't even safe. People are getting run over on the side of the road, like animals. The stakes have never been higher, and yet nobody knows what the hell, and even the smart money's confused.
When Prime Minister Justin Trudeau called for an election mere weeks (was it weeks? really?) ago there was a collective late-summer sigh in the air, as Canadians of all political stripes wondered why the hell he couldn't wait until after the global pandemic had subsided a bit more. The last election was only two years ago, in October 2019, which feels
like a million years ago, so there's strategies at play here that most
won't be able to grasp until the dust settles. The reason Trudeau called the election? To cement a legacy that his backers hope will keep Canada on the path forward... to the future! For everyone! (We have our doubts, too.)
As has been the case for over 100 years, there is a de facto two party system with Canadian characteristics at play. After two terms of Liberal government, smart money is on the Conservatives to take a minority government. This would leave the Conservative guy, Erin O'Toole (yes, he or his handlers did come up with the stunning "Make Canada Great Again" slogan) isolated and at the whim of Trudeau and Jagmeet Singh, who'll make sure his tenure is uncomfortable as possible (and possibly come into Parliament with MCGA shirts and hats to really rub it in).
But Canadians have seen that kind of thing before... it happened with Stephen Harper and he turned out to be somewhat of a Man on the Scene for quite some time, only gaining power as the years passed and his blissfully biased eye decided who Canada was going to stand up for, and who Canada would ignore. But the people loved him, or at least tolerated him (despite his barely-hidden contempt of the average Canadian)—and the machine of the economy, which ran itself in those days, continued to churn quite well.
"Well none of that matters at all!" I hear you say. "What's with the history lessons?" Yeah I don't know either, there's a feeling in some Canadian homes that O'Toole Conservativism will be a slow, winding road to another Conservative Majority in a couple of years. Meanwhile, the Bloc Québécois may continue to come back from the brink of extinction, making everyone wonder if the 90s are about to repeat themselves in some unthinkable way. The NDP have an attractive platform and an engaged leader, as well. The Green Party has a new leader and potentially a shot at being a 3+ seat party.
Anti-vaxxers, conspiracy theorists, and angry people are pledging their votes to the PPC, a wildcard party that mixes contrarianism, libertarianism, and right-wing policy in a spiteful concoction that most well-travelled Canadians know will have a lasting appeal to the self-described, self-pitying 'persecuted majority' who suddenly feel left out by a (slightly) more centrist Conservative Party that's part of 'the globalist agenda'. The Greens continue to be a 'lost vote' and the NDP will have to make major gains, similar to the historic gains they've made in the past, to swing the needle at all. The Liberals are not 'a sure thing', and may return with a minority despite calling an election nobody wanted (which, we must assume, was called for some kind of power-concentrating reason). Many more are confident that nothing will change, and the twisty concept of strategic voting may well ensure it.
The Issues Haunting Canada in 2021
'Ordinary Canadian' is the level of analysis that gets to the heart of the problems said to be most influential in which party gets elected. While problems between Canada and the people whose land it stole remain unsolved, the average Canadian is likely to feel bad about it (in one way or the other) and then go on to worry about other things.
Yes, there's racism and sexism throughout Canada, from the priviliged universities (run by 'looney lefties and their lapdogs') where sexual assault is disturbingly common, to the missing First Nations women in the West (and not only there), to the cities where black and brown people are sometimes just killed (a Muslim family was run over in London, Ontario, by a hateful white guy in a truck whose family were likely also unwelcome immigrants at some point in the past), to the racism and sexism quietly living in boardrooms, executive offices, and managerial levels in business... well those topics are perhaps best left to the professionals. Or maybe should be detailed later, as the outcome o' this election, whether Trudeau or Toole, will not lead to many lasting solutions to ingrained societal problems.
There is the small matter of the COVID-19 Pandemic, which has become about as politicized as our worst-case scenarios might have predicted in the heady, worrisome days of March 2020. Having given up on protesting lockdowns, the Angry Fringe have redirected their ire towards vaccination and vaccination passports. This massive topic was glibly covered at an English language debate when all the leaders agreed—after school special style—that people should just get vaccinated, the kind of PR mistake that reminds one of the sort of boneheaded messaging that exaccerbated the crisis from the start—no unsure person is listening to politicians on TV telling them to get vaxxed. The main platform differences are about what gets funded, with Cons and Libs pledging lots of money in varying proportions to corporations and citizens, the NDP saying they'll keep the public purse open. Talk of what recovery will look like is scarce, since nobody seems to know anything.
But you're not here to read about the Coronavirus Pandemic and probably so sick of it that you feel as if you'll die of respiratory failure when it's brought up. No, you're here to see if the ghost of Political Maverick Jack Layton will guide Jagmeet Singh to a unforeseen victory, opening up the two party system, maybe forever... well, those days are over. Jagmeet is his own man, and about the most affable candidate with a widely progressive platform, something that will certainly cost him votes.
Housing is a major problem in Canada. Since it's a desirable, but self-effacing place to live, the real estate market is insane, with foreign purchasers laundering millions not just through empty condominiums and mothballed mansions, but also through development companies and investment as well. Overheating has caused the price of a home to rise across the country, from the shores of the Petitcodiac, through the most blighted stretches of sprawl in Ontario, across all the landlocked provinces past Alberta's Rat Wall, and right out to the furthest points West. Even in Quebec there are whispers, frightened little whispers, of property prices maybe going up steeply in the next 5 years.
Some blame the housing crisis on bad policy, some blame it on immigration, and others blame it on wealthy foreigners and the governments who cater to them. Some others have a home they like, so they don't call it a crisis at all. Whatever the case, whatever the cause: housing in Canada is expensive and scarce, and affordable housing is a whisper on the wind, maddening to follow and impossible to find unless you like St. John's (and even then). The Conservatives promise to build 1 million houses, and if you split that across the country, it's a sensibly meaningless promise to make—but that's like adding a lane to a highway to solve traffic—the general trend continues to get worse.
Healthcare remains king among issues. A gaffe put the Conservatives in hot water for suggesting two tiers of public/private healthcare. Pretty much all the rest of the parties pledge more money to the system, with little talk of which problems exist and how they can be solved. National drug coverage and dentistry access are the NDP's contribution, but that's pricey and with a plague-fuelled recession over the horizon, people aren't going to like anything that's pricey. The PPC want to make the system private, and pledge to celebrate the ensuing deaths of the vulnerable with fireworks and chanting.
Fixing the economy is a favorite gong for politicians to bang on until we go deaf. Of course, for the Ordinary Canadian, the main business of the economy is providing well-paid, stable employment so they can attempt to go into debt to buy a house or a new flashy vehicle, or continue to live in rentals and try to squirrel away enough for retirement. People with houses want everything to be great and their position to be safe, with more money and, somehow, an inexpensive house after they sell their expensive one. Every party is promising, at bare minimum, more jobs. Some are promising less taxes to create jobs, which is a thoughtful policy everyone knows always works.
An Electrifying Conclusion
At the time of writing, voters are still lining up everywhere. In fact, due to the pandemic, there's less stations and some really long lines, and people in them might wait as long as it took this sloppy blogger to write this questionable yet tasteful post. There's technical difficulties with the old website, but no signs of overt foreign meddling (though some say the PPC has been hijacked by unknown parties wanting to create the same kind of distressing political environment enjoyed by millions in the United States).
Ballots are being marked, one way or the other. It may not be record turnout (the lawn signs were muted this year compared to 2019), but then again, there is the sense that many things are at stake. On the other hand, there's the sense that things won't change because votes should be strategic. The Conservatives are asking voters not to split with the PPC, the Liberals are saying not to vote for the NDP... the Greens are asking people to vote for them, but most will lament the action as meaningless. A lot of overtired campaign staff are probably looking for new jobs, or even interviewing for them today.
As the day progresses to evening, from one coast and then, hours later and thousands of miles away, the other, the future of the world's favourite country will be decided. There's a slight sense of defeatism, facing one problem while others are raging, and while much of the world is in a state resembling barely-controlled chaos.
However, the probable minority government most likely to result from the 2021 election will be Conservative or Liberal and there is a feeling that little or nothing will change, a dangerous feeling, but given the general fatigue and weariness about everything which rules the land this season, it may be a natural one. Still, when the votes come in, the smart money's going to look dumb, and all this sloppy blogger can predict is that a lot of people are still going to be angry, divided, and fearful.
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